São Bernardo vs Cuiabá – Serie B Statistics

Match: São Bernardo vs Cuiabá • Season 2026 • Week 17 Venue: Estádio Primeiro de Maio Prices to win: São Bernardo 2.25 | Draw 2.95 | Cuiabá 3.25 Totals market: Over 0.5 1.08 • Over 1.5 1.53 • Over 2.5 2.75 • Under 3.5 1.10 • Under 2.5 1.43 Key indicators: Historical trend: under 3.5 goals is virtually assured (100% in recent data), while under 2.5 sits at a strong 81% on average. Combined xG (São Bernardo home xG 1.35, Cuiabá away xG 1.05) points to a total around 2.0–2.5, i.e., a tight, low‑scoring contest. Corners: Over 8.5 corners is priced at 1.45, Over 7.5 at 1.23. Expect a busy territorial battle given both sides’ recent corner tendencies. São Bernardo to win more corners is priced at 1.79; Cuiabá to lead corners is 2.53. Expect a closer split, but São Bernardo still the more likely to edge the set-piece count. BTTS Yes at 2.15 vs BTTS No at 1.59; overall BTTS average around 26% historically, suggesting a modest chance of both nets lighting up. Team context: Pre-match form: São Bernardo 1.13 points per game; Cuiabá 1.29. Cuiabá travel better by marginal margins, but São Bernardo’s home setup adds bite. Home/away dynamics: São Bernardo at home show modest win rate (25%), while Cuiabá away win rate sits around 29% with similar scoring profiles on the road. Defensive context: São Bernardo’s home defence gains a slight edge in structure; attacking output at home is a touch below its baseline, suggesting a compact approach. Prediction & angle: Low‑scoring and balanced, with a slight edge to São Bernardo in the match tempo but Cuiabá capable of damaging on the break. Expect a 1–1 or 1–0 style game, with most goal action coming in the second half as nerves settle and set‑pieces become decisive. Best bets (value aligned to the data): Double Chance: São Bernardo Win or Draw @ 1.36 Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.10 (low risk; aligns with 100% under trend) Over 8.5 Corners @ 1.45 (likely busy from both sides) BTTS Yes @ 2.15 (moderate chance; consider as a supplementary stab) Kick-off: July 13