Home vs Away – England FA Cup Statistics

Pagham vs Ascot United • 9 September 2026 • 2026/27 Home advantage leans Pagham’s way: they win at home at an 80% clip and bring a +14 edge in attack when at home. Ascot United arrive with a solid away record (50% away win) but the balance tips toward the hosts on this occasion. BTTS 88% historically—both sides usually find the net. Under 4.5 goals 84% and Under 3.5 goals 84%—expect a low to mid-range scoreline. Under 2.5 goals 54% (slightly favours under); Over 2.5 goals 46%—a tight game is plausible. Goal timing: first half shows slower scoring (Over 0.5/1.5 at 29%), while the second half offers modest activity (Over 0.5/1.5 around 46%). Total goals around 2.79 on average for these sides historically. Form in isolation: Pagham 2.00 points per game; Ascot United 2.33 — guests hold a slight edge on paper, but home advantage could be decisive. Predictions: A tight, possibly low-scoring affair with late drama. Primary pick: Pagham win, 2-1. If Ascot neutralises the hosts, a 1-1 draw is a plausible fallback. Betting angles: BTTS Yes, Under 2.5 goals, and a second-half scoring pattern are the most likely routes to profit.