Millwall vs Blackburn Rovers — The Den, Week 38 (2025/26) Late-season test at The Den where Millwall enter as clear favourites (1.75) to take three points, with Blackburn at 4.75 and a 3.50 draw. The home edge is tangible: Millwall’s win rate at home sits around 58%, and their attack enjoys a noticeable home advantage (+3) in this setup. The data also shows Millwall’s general xG at home (1.58) eclipses Blackburn’s away xG (1.26), while Millwall’s pre-match points per game (1.89) edge Blackburn (1.24). Key numbers you should know: - Total match xG between the teams: 2.84 - Over/Under cues: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28; Over 2.5 goals at 2.03; Under 4.5 goals at 1.05 (the likely outcome given recent trends) - BTTS: Yes at 1.90, No at 1.80 (BTTS slightly leaning Yes) - Corners: expect a busy game around 10–11 corners; Over 7.5 at 1.19, Over 9.5 at 1.57, Over 10.5 at 1.90 - Clean sheets: Millwall yes 2.15, Blackburn yes 4.50 - Double chance (Millwall Win or Draw) 1.16; Double chance (Blackburn Win or Draw) 1.95 Insights from the data: Millwall are the safer call given home form and higher home xG, while Blackburn’s away stats are clearly tougher. The average BTTS rate between these sides sits around 36%, but the current lines still give a slight edge to BTTS Yes. The fixture typically stays within a 2-goal frame (average total goals around 2.84 in this pairing), and the odds favour a relatively contained scoreline under 4.5 goals. Predictions and bets to consider: - Primary: Millwall to win (1.75) - Safe angle: Millwall Win or Draw (1.16) - Goal expectation: Over 1.5 goals (1.28) and BTTS Yes (1.90) - Alternative play: Over 2.5 goals (2.03) and Over 10.5 corners (1.90) - Clean sheet checks: Millwall to keep a clean sheet is plausible but not highly confident (2.15) versus Blackburn’s 4.50 for a shutout Angle to watch: expect a brisk first 15 minutes—the 1st-half Over 0.5 goals sits around 70%, suggesting a fast start but the overall pace may settle into a tight 2–1 or 1–0 style closer to full time. Kick-off is March 15; atmosphere at The Den can tilt the balance in a close finish.